Initial Evaluation of Terminal Area Atmospheric Vertical Structure Prediction Algorithms Using Fall 1994 ITWS/Wake Vortex Programs’ Meteorological Data

A Dynamic Atmospheric Vertical Structure Nowcast System (DAVS-NS) is being developed that will add value to the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) by providing current and short-term forecasts of the vertical atmospheric structure focused at specific sites within the terminal domain. Operational applications of these estimates of the atmospheric vertical structure include predicting changes in airport operation rates due to ceiling and visibility (C&V) changes and in predicting wake vortex behavior. The core of this system would be a one-dimensional boundary layer column model, This report summarizes the evaluation of a modified Oregon State University (OSU) column model using data collected during the fall 1994 combined National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) wake vortex project and the ITWS site operations at Memphis International Airport (MEM). We have concluded that further efforts necessary to develop and test an operational DAVS-NS prototype appear to be worthwhile. The accuracy typically seen in column model predictions of the vertical temperature structure would limit errors in wake vortex dissipation rates to within a factor of two. As well, given the current working hypothesis for the San Francisco stratus burn-off phenomenon that rests largely on warming of the marine boundary layer by surface heat flux, the OSU model would also appear to be well suited for addressing this particular problem.